Hogan Poll Results Mirror Ehrlich’s Downward Slide

Feb 20, 2018

Annapolis, MD – A new Goucher Poll released today shows that the percentage of Marylanders who support giving Governor Larry Hogan a second term has fallen by 10 points to 47 percent since the February 2017 Goucher Poll a year ago. The poll also shows that Hogan’s support for reelection among women voters has cratered from 51 percent in February of last year to 40 percent in today’s poll, while Democrats’ support has increased from 38 percent to 49 percent—a 22 point upswing.

Hogan is following in the footsteps of his mentor, and Maryland’s most recent Republican governor, Bob Ehrlich—who also failed to receive support for reelection from 50 percent of Marylanders in polls leading up to the 2006 election. Weighed down by an unpopular president, Ehrlich went on to lose to Governor Martin O’Malley by more than 6 points, including a 20-point loss with women voters.

“Heading into a tough election climate for Republicans, it is becoming increasingly clear that Maryland voters do not want to give Governor Hogan a second term,” said Maryland Democratic Party Chair Kathleen Matthews. “The similarities between Hogan’s reelection bid and Ehrlich’s failed 2006 campaign are uncanny. Like Ehrlich, Hogan has not been able to earn the support for reelection from 50 percent of Marylanders; he is weighed down by a historically unpopular president; and he is struggling to close the gender gap. The Hogan campaign should be even more worried about the election after reading this poll.”

The poll comes after a series of polls showing bad signs for Governor Hogan’s reelection odds.  A poll released in December by Our Maryland showed that only 45 percent of Marylanders supported giving Hogan a second term.  In a November 2017 OpinionWorks poll, less than half of Maryland voters—only 43 percent—would vote to reelect Hogan.  A Mason Dixon poll also released in November found that a majority of Marylanders would not support Governor Hogan’s bid for a second term.